The Teetering Revolutions

The last few months have marked a change in the Arab world, as uprisings against oppressive dictatorships have spread across the land like wildfire. The one currently making the most headlines is the Libyan uprising. But how long will armed resistance continue without outside military support? President Obama and his staff have put out various statements which all follow the path of 'military intervention.' Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said, "Nothing is off the table so long as the Libyan Government continues to threaten and kill Libyans." But how long can these revolts survive without serious intervention? Sadly, not that long.

The Libyan military has been cut down greatly due to the recent uprising, but is still a formidable force for the rebels to take on. The main danger is the 32nd Brigade, and is well armed and trained by western military forces. They have various Soviet T-model tanks, ranging from the T-54 model to the T-72 model. They have various artillery pieces, and a wide range of Surface to Air Missiles. They have AK-47 variants, as well as medium and heavy machine guns. The Libyan Air force has, possibly, MiG-25 fighters and Tu-22 bombers. The Rebel forces, on the other hand, have whatever weapons could be obtained, which are at best AK variants and Heavy Machine Guns mounted on trucks, and at worst rocks and slingshots. The rebel forces are not unified completely. As the Libyan Governmental forces continue to go head to head with rebels, the Governmental forces WILL COME OUT ON TOP. The revolution will die, and Col. Gaddafi will remain in power. But what can be done? Intervention is the answer. And the United States is one of the only countries that can provide this intervention.

As of now, one of the ideas being debated is to establish a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent further civilian deaths at the hands of Gaddafi's soldiers. In a recent New York Times article by John Broder, a senior administration official has been quoted as saying “There hasn’t been discussion that I’m aware of related to military intervention beyond that, and a discussion of that nature would have to begin at the U.N.” But this will never be carried out. The Russian Federation and the PRC will not allow an effective policy to work.

Currently, there are several warships from various nations in the area around Libya for refugee rescue purposes. From the United States, the USS Kearsarge, a Wasp-Class amphibious assault ship which has various support helicopters, Harrier Jump-jets, and 1,893 marines, the USS Ponce, an Austin-Class amphibious transport dock carrying various amphibious vehicles, and the USS Barry, a missile destroyer have been sent to deal with the situation. Various other ships from different nations are approaching the area as well. But, the rebels will not be able to sustain their current efforts, for reasons already stated. So, what shall be done?

One option that has been gaining attention is the establishment of a No-Fly Zone over the area. This would be a step in the right direction, but it is truly not enough. The best move the United States can make, without actual military force, is supplying the rebels with weaponry. This will level the playing field for the Rebels, and maybe even give them an edge in this battle.

The Obama Administration has displayed the idea that this revolution be "organic." That foreign intervention will label the United States as Imperialist. But what if "organic" power is not enough? What kind of message will Gaddafi coming out on top send to all of the other Arab countries that are clamoring for democracy? What will the repercussions be? The risks of the defeat of the rebellion are too great to be passed over. These moments will decide if the Middle East will be free of dictatorship and democratic, or if various Dictators shall remain in power. Hopefully, the world will make the right decisions to make sure that the former occurs, not the latter.