Nuclear Boy

Please don't ask why this is enjoyable. It just is.

http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/3689/nuclear-boy

This is the armscontrolwonk link to it, but it can be found by searching for the term on google.

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About time. It seems that Harry was correct.
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The Next Three Days: The End of the Libyan Rebellion

Since mid-febuary, there has been a revolution in Libya against Colonel Mummar Gaddafi. Rebel forces have been attempting to oust the Dictator, who has been controlling Libya since the late 1970's. For a bit more than a month, the world has stood by and watched as the Rebel forces fought hard against a superior army, and has listened to their cries for help. We all hoped that the rebels would be able to defeat Gaddafi on their own. And, for a time, it seemed that was possible. But, as time went on, the rebels started slipping. They had overextended themselves, confident that they could defeat the Dictator, and confident that the west wold give them a boost if needed. They payed the price for this ambition, as you and I watched key strategic points that the freedom-fighters held fall back into the hands of the Colonel. Al Zawiya, Ras Lanusf, and countless other cities have fallen into Gaddafi's hands. The rebels have continued to cry for help. Finally, the world began to react. NATO began to discuss a no-fly zone, and a serous bid began in the UN Security Council for a no-fly zone resolution. The Arab league approved a no-fly zone. But nothing has been done to help the rebels and give them fighting chance. Now, most previous measures will not work. Gaddafi will not be forced to the negotiating table. Humanitarian aid will not help. Just giving the rebels guns will not allow for them to overcome the Dictator. We, as the free world, have been passive, and now we will pay the price. We must make the tough decisions, and deal with the consequences.

As of now, there are only two completely feasible options. The first, to invade the country of Libya, bring Gaddafi down ourselves, and then help the Rebels build their own democracy. The second, to let the revolution die, and try and wash the blood off our hands.

The United States, even with its currently limited forces in the area, could quickly carry out option number one. The vessels that I mentioned in the previous article could quickly be converted to carry out military operations, and they could land. Tripoli could be taken in a matter of hours, and Benghazi could be fortified by a small force in the same amount of time. The 75th regiment as well as the 1st operational detachment could be there quickly, and Gaddafi will be overwhelmed by superior forces. American losses will be extremely low. That timeline is for just US involvement. More ships from other nations are already near to Libya. Italy is very close. Various other nations, if convinced, could very quickly give direct support to an attack on Gaddafi's forces. But someone must make the first move. A nation must take the initiative, and begin this operation. The United States is one of the Nations in a good position to do this.

The Second option is too horrible to contemplate. The forces of "freedom" and "liberty" stand by while the rebels are slaughtered in Benghazi. It will be brutal. Gaddafi will kill every last individual in that city. It will be a great victory for him, and all other dictators in the world. For this victory will show that the rest of the world will stand aside while slaughter occurs, and will give dictators open license to crush any rebellion with no fear of retribution.

Whatever occurs, the clock is ticking. The next three days will decide the fate of the Rebellion. I hope that the world makes the right decision. But if the world waits, that it will be made without our consent. It may be a decision we come to regret.

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Tsunami in Japan

The recent 8.8 earthquake in Japan (March 11) raises some serious questions for the readiness of the United State response system. There is not a better infrastructure in place to withstand earthquakes or a better immediate response system to earthquakes than in Japan. Despite this, the Tokyo Broadcasting System (TBS) reported that a total of 1,100 people are either dead or missing

Over the next four years in California, there is a 94 percent chance that an earthquake magnitude 7 or higher will strike in the next thirty years. We know it's coming. The problem is can we do anything about it? There are massive earthquake drills in California that occur once an year. Only one in five Californians takes part in them. One appropriate course of action might be to engage in infrastructure projects to improve the stability of buildings.

How about putting more money in research and development for earthquake prediction? There would be countless lives saved if we somehow figure out when the next quake would hit. Thoughts?
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The Teetering Revolutions

The last few months have marked a change in the Arab world, as uprisings against oppressive dictatorships have spread across the land like wildfire. The one currently making the most headlines is the Libyan uprising. But how long will armed resistance continue without outside military support? President Obama and his staff have put out various statements which all follow the path of 'military intervention.' Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said, "Nothing is off the table so long as the Libyan Government continues to threaten and kill Libyans." But how long can these revolts survive without serious intervention? Sadly, not that long.

The Libyan military has been cut down greatly due to the recent uprising, but is still a formidable force for the rebels to take on. The main danger is the 32nd Brigade, and is well armed and trained by western military forces. They have various Soviet T-model tanks, ranging from the T-54 model to the T-72 model. They have various artillery pieces, and a wide range of Surface to Air Missiles. They have AK-47 variants, as well as medium and heavy machine guns. The Libyan Air force has, possibly, MiG-25 fighters and Tu-22 bombers. The Rebel forces, on the other hand, have whatever weapons could be obtained, which are at best AK variants and Heavy Machine Guns mounted on trucks, and at worst rocks and slingshots. The rebel forces are not unified completely. As the Libyan Governmental forces continue to go head to head with rebels, the Governmental forces WILL COME OUT ON TOP. The revolution will die, and Col. Gaddafi will remain in power. But what can be done? Intervention is the answer. And the United States is one of the only countries that can provide this intervention.

As of now, one of the ideas being debated is to establish a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent further civilian deaths at the hands of Gaddafi's soldiers. In a recent New York Times article by John Broder, a senior administration official has been quoted as saying “There hasn’t been discussion that I’m aware of related to military intervention beyond that, and a discussion of that nature would have to begin at the U.N.” But this will never be carried out. The Russian Federation and the PRC will not allow an effective policy to work.

Currently, there are several warships from various nations in the area around Libya for refugee rescue purposes. From the United States, the USS Kearsarge, a Wasp-Class amphibious assault ship which has various support helicopters, Harrier Jump-jets, and 1,893 marines, the USS Ponce, an Austin-Class amphibious transport dock carrying various amphibious vehicles, and the USS Barry, a missile destroyer have been sent to deal with the situation. Various other ships from different nations are approaching the area as well. But, the rebels will not be able to sustain their current efforts, for reasons already stated. So, what shall be done?

One option that has been gaining attention is the establishment of a No-Fly Zone over the area. This would be a step in the right direction, but it is truly not enough. The best move the United States can make, without actual military force, is supplying the rebels with weaponry. This will level the playing field for the Rebels, and maybe even give them an edge in this battle.

The Obama Administration has displayed the idea that this revolution be "organic." That foreign intervention will label the United States as Imperialist. But what if "organic" power is not enough? What kind of message will Gaddafi coming out on top send to all of the other Arab countries that are clamoring for democracy? What will the repercussions be? The risks of the defeat of the rebellion are too great to be passed over. These moments will decide if the Middle East will be free of dictatorship and democratic, or if various Dictators shall remain in power. Hopefully, the world will make the right decisions to make sure that the former occurs, not the latter.

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